Study: Chinese Incursions Into India Strategically Planned To Gain Permanent Control Of Disputed Border Areas – Study Report

India China border dispute (symbol photo).

India China border dispute (symbol photo).
– Photo: PTI

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Chinese violations in the Aksai Chin region are not unplanned and independent incidents, but part of a strategically planned and coordinated expansionary strategy to gain permanent control over the disputed border region. This information has come to the fore in a study conducted by a team of international experts on Chinese border incursions into India.

The study used an original dataset of events that occurred over the course of 15 years.
The study was conducted by experts from Northwestern University, Technical University of Delft, Netherlands and Netherlands Defense Academy on the topic ‘Rising Tension in the Himalayas: Geospatial Analysis of Chinese Incursions on the Indian Border’. Using an original dataset of developments over the past 15 years, he presented a geospatial analysis of Chinese intrusions for the study.

Chinese incursions strategically planned: Study

The study report was released on Thursday. It states that “we find that the conflict can be divided into two independent conflicts—the West and the East. These conflicts are centered around the major disputed areas of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. Based on insights from the analysis, we conclude that Chinese incursions into the West are strategically planned and aimed at permanent control over the disputed border area, or at least clearly maintaining the status quo.

For the study, the team defined ‘infiltration’ into areas internationally accepted as Indian territory, by foot or vehicles of Chinese troops across the border. Then, they plotted each location on a map, identifying 13 hotspots where infiltration has occurred most frequently. In the 15-year dataset, the researchers noted an average of 7.8 intrusions per year, although the Indian government’s estimate is much higher.

Controversy over 3488 km long LAC
The 3,488-km-long Line of Actual Control (LAC) is involved in the India-China border dispute. China claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of southern Tibet while India opposes it. Aksai Chin is a vast area in Ladakh that is currently under Chinese occupation. According to Indian government data released in 2019, Chinese forces infiltrated Indian territory 1,025 times between 2016 and 2018. The then Minister of State for Defense Shripad Naik told in the Lok Sabha in November 2019 that in 2016, the Chinese army had infiltrated the Indian territory 273 times, which increased to 426 in 2017. The number of such cases in 2018 was 326.

The study’s authors include Jan-Tino Breithauer and Robert Fokkink of the Technical University of Delft, Netherlands, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Kevin Greene of Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, Roy Lindloff of the Netherlands Defense Academy, which is in Breda, Netherlands. Faculty of Military Science, Carolyn Tornquist of Dartmouth College’s Department of Computer Science and VS Subrahmanyam of the US Department of Computer Science at Northwestern University and Evanston’s Buffett Institute for Global Affairs.

Chinese incursions part of coordinated expansionary strategy: Study
A Northwestern press release said the authors gathered a new dataset compiling information on Chinese incursions into India from 2006 to 2020 and used game theory (strategies to deal with competitive situations) to analyze the data. analysis) and used statistical methods. The researchers found that the conflicts can be divided into two distinct regions—West/Central (Aksai Chin region) and East (Arunachal Pradesh region). The study report said that Chinese incursions on India’s west and central borders are not unplanned and independent incidents, which happen by mistake. While the researchers found that infiltration numbers generally increased over time, they concluded that conflict in the East and Central regions is part of a coordinated expansionary strategy.

  • The study also covers the Galwan conflict in June 2020, in which 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed. The report said that reports of Chinese incursions into Indian territory are now frequent. It said that this escalating tension between the two most populous countries of the world poses risks to global security and the world economy. Militarization in the region has a negative ecological impact.
  • The study noted that both countries respond not only to actions directed towards them, but also to actions directed within their alliance and rivalry networks.
  • The study said that India and China are in a state of constant high alert and there is no sign that the situation will improve in the near future, but the resolution of the conflict depends on international security, the world economy and the unique ecology of the Himalayas. Would be very beneficial for conservation.

Expansion

Chinese violations in the Aksai Chin region are not unplanned and independent incidents, but part of a strategically planned and coordinated expansionary strategy to gain permanent control over the disputed border region. This information has come to the fore in a study conducted by a team of international experts on Chinese border incursions into India.

The study used an original dataset of events that occurred over the course of 15 years.

The study was conducted by experts from Northwestern University, Technical University of Delft, Netherlands and Netherlands Defense Academy on the topic ‘Rising Tension in the Himalayas: Geospatial Analysis of Chinese Incursions on the Indian Border’. Using an original dataset of developments over the past 15 years, he presented a geospatial analysis of Chinese intrusions for the study.


Chinese incursions strategically planned: Study

The study report was released on Thursday. It states that “we find that the conflict can be divided into two independent conflicts—the West and the East. These conflicts are centered around the major disputed areas of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. Based on insights from the analysis, we conclude that Chinese incursions into the West are strategically planned and aimed at permanent control over the disputed border area, or at least clearly maintaining the status quo.

For the study, the team defined ‘infiltration’ into areas internationally accepted as Indian territory, by foot or vehicles of Chinese troops across the border. Then, they plotted each location on a map, identifying 13 hotspots where infiltration has occurred most frequently. In the 15-year dataset, the researchers noted an average of 7.8 intrusions per year, although the Indian government’s estimate is much higher.

Controversy over 3488 km long LAC

The 3,488-km-long Line of Actual Control (LAC) is involved in the India-China border dispute. China claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of southern Tibet while India opposes it. Aksai Chin is a vast area in Ladakh that is currently under Chinese occupation. According to Indian government data released in 2019, Chinese forces infiltrated Indian territory 1,025 times between 2016 and 2018. The then Minister of State for Defense Shripad Naik told in the Lok Sabha in November 2019 that in 2016, the Chinese army had infiltrated the Indian territory 273 times, which increased to 426 in 2017. The number of such cases in 2018 was 326.

The study’s authors include Jan-Tino Breithauer and Robert Fokkink of the Technical University of Delft, Netherlands, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Kevin Greene of Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, Roy Lindloff of the Netherlands Defense Academy, which is in Breda, Netherlands. Faculty of Military Science, Carolyn Tornquist of Dartmouth College’s Department of Computer Science and VS Subrahmanyam of the US Department of Computer Science at Northwestern University and Evanston’s Buffett Institute for Global Affairs.

Chinese incursions part of coordinated expansionary strategy: Study

A Northwestern press release said the authors gathered a new dataset compiling information on Chinese incursions into India from 2006 to 2020 and used game theory (strategies to deal with competitive situations) to analyze the data. analysis) and used statistical methods. The researchers found that the conflicts can be divided into two distinct regions—West/Central (Aksai Chin region) and East (Arunachal Pradesh region). The study report said that Chinese incursions on India’s west and central borders are not unplanned and independent incidents, which happen by mistake. While the researchers found that infiltration numbers generally increased over time, they concluded that conflict in the East and Central regions is part of a coordinated expansionary strategy.

  • The study also covers the Galwan conflict in June 2020, in which 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed. The report said that reports of Chinese incursions into Indian territory are now frequent. It said that this escalating tension between the two most populous countries of the world poses risks to global security and the world economy. Militarization in the region has a negative ecological impact.
  • The study noted that both countries respond not only to actions directed towards them, but also to actions directed within their alliance and rivalry networks.
  • The study said that India and China are in a state of constant high alert and there is no sign that the situation will improve in the near future, but the resolution of the conflict depends on international security, the world economy and the unique ecology of the Himalayas. Would be very beneficial for conservation.

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